How do you estimate potential SEO traffic from Adwords data?

[bernard]

Ping: @CCarter, @eliquid

Ok, so you have some data from Adwords.

It has all the data about the searches right? How often your ads are shown and in which position and which keywords and so on. Conversion value pr. keyword and pr. search term.

That means it should be possible, using an Ad/Organic (ahref?) ratio, to calculate the expected SEO value of being 1st, 2nd etc.

Particularly considering that Adwords now is more like SEO in that variants and phrase match is what happens now.

What I want is to be able to export search term data and its conversion data and convert that into an estimated SEO traffic value in Google Sheets.

Any ideas on where to begin?

 

[CCarter]

Whatever you do, don't make it too difficult. Complicating formulas is just mental masturbation. There are so many variables, like feature snippets, 4 ADs above the organic #1 position or just 2, other rich data.

I honestly just go with whatever traffic estimate Adwords has. If they say 10,000 to 15,000, use a number in the middle, 12500. Then with the worse case scenario 30%, 3,750 visitors at #1 position.

The reason I use 30% is based off of the monthly traffic volume from SERPWoo, and looking at the traffic that comes from Google it way the fuck off (for terms that I'm #1 for). The lowest I've seen from my own data and projects is 30% of the traffic Adwords/SERPWoo reports. I've seen higher, up to 200%. Doing estimates people tend to be way too over-optimistic, I like doing low end conservative numbers when creating an action plan.

You guys should be easily able to do the same by looking at traffic estimates and then the traffic that the #1 position keywords send you. Export the data from GSC into a serp tracker, then find the keywords you are #1 in, and use that traffic data to make the measurement. You should be able to get your own percentage of traffic from clicks going to your site.

As well you are going to get variations of the spelling, and other traffic from long-tails, so 30% on the low end is a safe floor.

BTW, what the fuck is an ahrefs?

 

[bernard]

@CCarter

Thanks, but I am not sure we're talking about the same thing.

I have begun running Adwords, with some success, in part inspired by your ramblings on why wait 8 months for a dud.

Ok, so now when I publish an affiliate post, I run ads for it and if I get a positive ROAS, then that's cool, but in any case, it tells me something about the profitability of the keyword.

Next up is deciding how much I can afford to spend to get my SEO going, which is stuff like supplementary content, but really, how much can I spend on linkbuilding.

If I run a 300% ROAS for the benefit of $500 /month on a keyword, then that tells me a lot doesn't it. I can spend a lot more on linkbuilding and supplementary content, than on a keyword that is only giving me 200% ROAS and $100 / month.

I will take away from what you said, to not overthink it.

Maybe it's enough to look at the Ad Revenue pr. month for these keywords and plan accordingly. No need to get into the exact details.

You could figure out rules of thumbs, like spending 50% of monthly ad revenue pr. page on SEO for 6 months or something like that.