Semiconductor Shortage = Trouble

[Hanuman]

My comment is not about me being in denial. A recession is coming for sure, and it is going to eat a lot of our lunches. But I am still going to call your post FUD because the 'you are already dead' said a dozen times is just exaggerating the panic.

Sure, there is going to be an economic crisis. But for the most part, we are all going to be fine, bar a little purse tightening here and there.

We have lived through 9/11, the 2008 recession, and the COVID pandemic in just recent memory. This can't and won't be worse than any of that, and we all turned out fine.

 

[Zach]

@CCarter I believe is correct with all these matters. Not that it matters much, but I went to school for economics and am an ecomm business owner now, so I see a few sides to it all. I think it's hard to ignore that something WILL come. What always irks me though is that many FUD spreaders have been beating this kinda drum for 20 years. "Oh yea, this is the big one, it's different this crash!" I tend to agree with them! It's cost me good opportunity too! But "the big crash" just seems to end up way better than the doomsayers mention. I'm pretty amazed by how adaptable someone (US gov't?) has been at kicking the can down the road on all this.

Are they perhaps making the hangover even WORSE by such drastic measures of a recessionary delay? The covid mess? Is QE like a night of drinking, the more you drink, the worse the hangover results? History tends to say so.

This kinda shit is what scares the crap outta me. Like here I am in the weeds in a biz and one day I lift my head up and see the economy on fire! Are the embers already lit? I suppose it's a fear all people have in general.

On the other side of fear, is opportunity. Some believe recessions offer some of the most opportunistic times available, for those who are clever enough and determined enough to maximize on the new market conditions. I want to make a move amongst the hysteria. Amongst the mass BS pricing on pretty much anything that this QE has created, it's gonna be fun to see what's left to scoop up. Hopefully not my shit!

 

[bernard]

My prediction is that it won't be as bad as people imagine, because Putin is a couple of weeks out of winning in Ukraine and when that happens, then the West can't afford to meltdown.

I do believe that there was a plan to do a controlled demolition of the economy. One to escape the chinese debt and two to institute various undemocratic surveillance state measures to end western liberal democracy.

The problem is that Russia called their bluff and they're winning.

That's why it won't be as bad, because crashing the economy and plunging Europe into social upheaval isn't very smart when Russia is on the doorstep (and ready to recruit).

Most analysts I've listened to believes Russia will win soon and the war will end and the Fed will tighten credit quickly and we'll have inflation for a couple of years, but no recession.

 

[DarkRed]

The problem is that Russia called their bluff and they're winning.

What do you mean by winning? I think they lost already, no matter how much territory they "anex".

 

[bernard]

What do you mean by winning? I think they lost already, no matter how much territory they "anex".

Winning in as in achieving their goals, which they seem to have done in less than 3 months. They've taken control over the russian speaking areas, they've killed the Azov "nazis" and all that's missing is a regime change in Kiev.

 

[SmokeTree]

BTC is and has been trading/consolidating at 28-30k for weeks now (recent test of 32k) and will continue to until volume takes it up or down or up to a new level. That will happen until there is enough downside volume to take it and hold under 27.2, otherwise it will most likely mean revert as sharp as it dropped. Look at the 1 month chart, 5 day then 1 day. Think this precise price action is a bunch of wishy washy dumbasses with no clue? Nah, LOL. But here's the thing...

There's also no indication on the chart and no reason/justification at all to take BTC higher than about 32.2k currently. As mentioned, as with stocks, a lot of this is traded on margin and with margin there are sizable margin fees that have to be maintained as well as a source for the margin to begin with. Let's think about this for a second. It's a lot safer for market makers to maintain this tight consolidation and just trade money that's pretty much already there (read NO NEW MONEY BEING TRADED, it's already there) and build wealth with these small pushups in price than to give BTC a lot of range right now. Remember, a lot of these folks are short selling and making money on the way down so they are profiting both directions. Again, want something for a long term investment? USD...

So, what do you do? You do what these folks are doing and have been doing and most investors probably SHOULD be doing and start trading this, buying at support, selling at resistance, rinse/repeat and you use Volume Spread Analysis to reveal the real traders and intent. These folks aren't riding their mortgage on these trades, this is business as usual. Trade the levels and worry about %, not price. Why would anyone even buy a sinking ship right now? Why not wait for the rising tide and say, a break over 35k to buy in and in the meantime, just do a bunch a of small trades and you'll never lose more than like 1-3% of capital per trade even if all of a sudden the bottom fell out. When/If/whatever the bottom falls out, no worries, there will absolutely be a new level to trade, just takes time to see it. Wish I knew a 10th of this shit when I first started trading (no I'm not going to knuckle you into buying a course or timeshares)... I guess the best question is, who here is trading this and who is a long term investor going solely on fundamental analysis? Doesn't cost a thing to try some ideas with paper trading.

 

[DarkRed]

Winning in as in achieving their goals, which they seem to have done in less than 3 months. They've taken control over the russian speaking areas, they've killed the Azov "nazis" and all that's missing is a regime change in Kiev.

Hard to say what was their original goal. It seems that they changed it after they encountered more resistance than expected.

If you keep adjusting (lowering) your goals you can always "win" as per your definition.

Besides that, the goals of a leader or party may not be good for the country as a whole. So to say that Russia is winning because they "achieved" the goals of their leaders is not accurate.

 

[bernard]

Hard to say what was their original goal. It seems that they changed it after they encountered more resistance than expected.

If you keep adjusting (lowering) your goals you can always "win" as per your definition.

Besides that, the goals of a leader or party may not be good for the country as a whole. So to say that Russia is winning because they "achieved" the goals of their leaders is not accurate.

Then lets try it in reverse: How are they losing?

Economy is strong, currency is strong, populations supports the war.

On the other hand, inflation is skyrocketing in the West and by trying to cancel Russia and steal their assets, the West have basically said to other countries that they can no longer trust them or their banking system. It's a huge mistake if you ask me.

What is going to happen with this is that more countries will move towards trading in Yuan, like how the Sauds have already done. Then its over for the American empire.

 

[CCarter]

Quote: But don't be surprised cause of your ignorance when your gas prices go to $6, $7, $8, $9, $10 a gallon - this is the end result of printing free money. Someone has to pay the piper.​

Well that was fast...

Just before Memorial Day, the Chevron on Alameda de las Pulgas in Menlo Park hit $7.25 a gallon.

Then, this week, one Chevron in Los Angeles was selling gas for more than $8 a gallon.

And now, we've spotted gasoline costing $9.50 a gallon at a gas station in Mendocino, along the northern California coast not too far from Fort Bragg.

These prices are well over the average price of gas in the Golden State, which last weekend surpassed $6 a gallon for the first time ever, according to the AAA. This is an all-time high for the state.

Breaking it down by cities, on Friday, the average price in Oakland is $6.37 a gallon, San Jose is $6.38 a gallon and San Francisco is $6.50 a gallon.

The prices are curbing drivers' plans.

[..]

Compare California's pain at the pump to other states: The national average is nearly $4.76 a gallon.

While that's less expensive than California, that price is also a record.

Source: Pain at the pump: Gas costs nearly $10 a gallon at this California station​

--

So we just checked off:

$6 gallon gas
$7 gallon gas
$8 gallon gas
$9 gallon gas
$10 gallon gas​

--

I know how you guys think, "Well that's JUST California". California accounts for about 12% of the US populate. And if you were alive in the last 10-20 years, you know when you see gas prices for California rise New York is next and then the rest of the nation.

Even I have to admit - that was a bit too fast though.

 

[NetZero]

Then lets try it in reverse: How are they losing?

Economy is strong, currency is strong, populations supports the war.

On the other hand, inflation is skyrocketing in the West and by trying to cancel Russia and steal their assets, the West have basically said to other countries that they can no longer trust them or their banking system. It's a huge mistake if you ask me.

What is going to happen with this is that more countries will move towards trading in Yuan, like how the Sauds have already done. Then its over for the American empire.

Russia cannot be taken seriously as a military conventional threat. It's laughable how bad they have been beaten military. It is so bad, that now we need the war to stay in Ukraine so it does not escalate to nuclear with NATO. Russia is now only a war of words. Yes, they have nuclear arms, and that is it now. Whatever financial pain the "West" takes on, will be a blip to the North Korea Pariah Russia will face. The best of Russia will belong to the west. Take the Donbas, and peace agreement for a victory. We all now know how weak Russia is and will be weaker in time. Now, the borders and NATO are woke, and ready.

 

[DarkRed]

I agree with @NetZero.

Plus, you have a lot of tech (and others) people fleeing the country because they can't work anymore from Russia mainly due to the sanctions. The longer the conflict the lower the chance these people will come back.

 

[bernard]

The US, Europe and NATO spent 8 years training and providing the Ukraine. It is a proper proxy war.

I remember this from Syria, claims that Russia wasn't winning, that it was laughable, that it was slow. They won and they will win in Ukraine.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/01/putin-russia-syria-war/423309/

“If America’s Syria-watchers agree on anything it is that the Russian campaign, which has enabled Mr Assad’s forces to make only minor gains, will fail

Decades of non-merit based hiring in the US has put incompetent people in control.

 

[CCarter]

That CryptoCrap Has Crapped Out

Let's set the stage...

Can't anyone guess what is going to happen to buttcoin after the next meeting? Anyone?

Well I'll put it another way, does anyone actually think that crap is going to go UP?

I wonder how buttcoin has reacted this week to the 0.75% rate hike by the Fed?

Oh I already know:

"Obviously it was going to drop CCarter". Ya'll won't give me even a single inch, huh?

It wasn't so obvious when ya'll were lobbing FUD and doomsday scenarios at me - that I was exaggerating everything. No motherfucker I actually know economics and finance - I actually studied this. In another lifetime I sat on the board of a merchant bank.

But what do I know...

Who's trolling? "Musical Chairs" in regards to cryptocurrency? That sounds vaguely familiar.

--

After weeks of plummeting cryptocurrency prices, Coinbase said on Tuesday that it was cutting 18 percent of its employees, after layoffs at other crypto companies like Gemini, BlockFi and Crypto.com. High-profile start-ups like Terraform Labs have imploded, wiping away years of investments. On Sunday, an experimental crypto bank, Celsius, abruptly halted withdrawals.

[..]

The total value of the cryptocurrency market has dropped by about 65 percent since autumn, and analysts predict the sell-off will continue. Stock prices of crypto companies have cratered, retail traders are fleeing and industry executives are predicting a prolonged slump that could put more companies in jeopardy.

[..]

“The tide has gone out in crypto, and we’re seeing that many of these businesses and platforms rested on shaky and unsustainable foundations,” said Lee Reiners, a former Federal Reserve official who teaches at Duke University Law School. “The music has stopped.”

Source: ‘The Music Has Stopped’: Crypto Firms Quake as Prices Fall​

It's not rocket surgery here guys. Regardless of all the fancy charts, volumes, and theories - Buttcoin, crypto, and real estate DO NOT operate in a vacuum.

They were funded by free money and the free money era is over.

Again, the mythical "whales", have a source for their funding. All you have to do is look at the source, understand why the whales can go nuts and move markets, then voila - you know the direction of the markets when the Fed decides to increase interest rate.

I stated over and over crypto was a game of musical chairs and when the free money runs out the music will stop spinning. Over 70% of cryptocurrency was bought on margin - what did you expect to happen? All you have to do is understand margin and realize - oh shit we're already dead:

The music has stopped spinning a long time ago (Autumn of last year), the DJ has packed up his equipment and left the building. If you're still in the building you're trespassing.

The building is set to be demolished at noon tomorrow. If you really are still in the building at that point the building is going to collapse on you, if you're not already dead from being you know - already dead.

Let's exit fairytale-land and get back to reality... Wait wait wait, one more:

This guy got banned for that. At the end of the day no one needs this crappy "tech". It doesn't do anything better. Why pretend it does, is beyond me.

Now let's get back to our regularly scheduled program, already in progress...

--

You Can't Kill What's Already Dead.

Boy oh boy, here we go now...

Things are about to get really rough out there - for YOU. I saw this coming from 1,000 miles away.

In fact I am 1,000 miles away.

Gas prices are hitting near $10 in parts of California. Gas is pretty much going to obliterate the middle class. If you are still in the middle class, you're already dead. Literally demand has already slowed down dramatically and consumers' money is shifting towards gas. Wild.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536492439816503296

Obviously McDonalds and Dominos are winning in the USA. You can't make this shit up.

Inflation has hit over 10% in a single month. The one dollar you had at the beginning of last month is worth less than $0.90 now. To say that is some extremely fast deterioration is an understatement of biblical proportion.

The markets are about to really take a nose-dive since increased rates results in slowdown of business and therefore unemployment increases, therefore demand decreases. Remember this is all controlled demolition.

We haven't even STARTED seeing the drop that the economy is about to take a whole.

Wholesale prices have increased 10.8% in a single month. - That's absurd. Those wholesale prices trickle down to consumer level meaning higher prices for everything.

The data is significant in that prices at the wholesale level feed through to consumer prices, which are running at their highest levels since December 1981. The consumer price index increased 8.6% annually in May, defying hopes that inflation had peaked in the spring.​

Basically what's happening is prices are increasing at a rate faster than most of us have ever seen in our lifetime. I wasn't around in 1981, so - yikes.

Intermission...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1537191379603890176

--

Doomsday, FUD, bla bla bla. Where is your buttcoin now? In the toilet.

Talking about toilets - you think you'll even have toilet paper? Are you even going to have a toilet?

Real estate demand has started dropping at an accelerating rate:

"Total mortgage application volume was 52.7% lower last week than the same week one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index."

Source: Mortgage demand is now roughly half of what it was a year ago, as interest rates move even higher​

The reason I'm here is because I want you guys to think long-term. Protect your neck and more importantly be prepared for the opportunities and take advantage of them. When there is Chaos - even the semblance of Order will result in profit. Just look at oil.

Think logistics, releasing the pressure off the supply chain. Come on, you got this.

Now to really understand HOW already dead you, try to understand this:

The recent extreme moves in the US Treasury market were both unusual and entirely predictable.

Yields on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury jumped as much as 28 basis points on Monday, a more than four standard deviation move and the kind of thing that’s only supposed to happen once in more than a century. Yields on two-year US government debt were even more volatile, soaring as much as 35 basis points.

Market participants say the outsized gyrations coincided with a drop in liquidity, or the ability to trade without impacting price. It’s an increasingly odd situation for US Treasuries which, in addition to forming the risk-free rate against which many other assets are judged, are generally considered to be the world’s most liquid market.

[..]

“What is worrisome is liquidity evaporating in Treasuries,” said Ben Emons of Medley Global Advisors. “The cost of transaction in bonds is rising fast and this time there is not an anchor from the Fed or other central banks buying bonds.”

Source: The World’s Most Important Market Has a Big and Repetitive Problem
​

Basically the only thing more volatile than bitcoin is the US Treasuries which are literally SUPPOSED to be the most liquid market. And unlike everything else, this is not something that can be manipulated and controlled. You can't force people to buy your assets if they don't have faith in them. And if there is no faith in US treasuries - there is no faith in the US dollar.

And I can assure you buttcoin isn't going to save ya'll. That shouldn't be the default answer.

 

[illmasterj]

Strongly considering cashing out of a site in a hobby niche right now. It's too early to sell in the context of the business, but I just can't see how RPMs/affiliate conversions can stay this high when so many people will have less money to spend on toys and a lot of products will surely go out of stock.

 

[contract]

Judging by the amount of traffic on the roads at 2pm on a weekday...

People aren't being affected by the gas prices and still driving 24/7 to run errands and shop retail.

I wonder how high the $/Gal will have to get to see any sort of reduction in traffic.

Weekends at Home Depot are packed, like every parking spot full. Consumers are still buying stuff non-stop. Grocery stores still full of shoppers.

I am truly fascinating by what's playing out right now... Glad I can look over the city from my peaceful mountain top retreat and ponder the chaos.

Meanwhile, "don't focus on things you can't change", has never been more relevant. Only way to make these things laughable is to keep hustling and let the peasants worry.

 

[harrytwatter]

I wonder if the activity now in the face of not just higher gas prices but higher everything prices is more of a fomo driven event than a "I don't care about prices" thing? Kind of feel like people are just trying to get shit before it get's any more expensive.. giving me 2020 toilet paper panic vibes.. just more drawn-out.

Focusing on things you can change is probably the best piece of universally applicable advice today. I drive as little as possible, less because of gas but out of fear of anything breaking or failing. Now may be the worst possible time in modern history to buy a new or used vehicle.

 

[bernard]

Strongly considering cashing out of a site in a hobby niche right now. It's too early to sell in the context of the business, but I just can't see how RPMs/affiliate conversions can stay this high when so many people will have less money to spend on toys and a lot of products will surely go out of stock.

I figure I lost at least $100.000 by not selling this time last year.

 

[eliquid]

People will still be out in droves buying stuff.

History always repeats itself.

At the start and middle of the last recession we had, I wanted a new MacBook Pro 17" fully decked out.

We had no chip or materials shortage.

But I was put on a "waiting list" to buy one. I also was competing neck to neck on buying our house at the time. And my Honda Pilot I was buying brand new at the time... also dealing with others buying them up.

Fast forward to the Pandemic, I was neck to neck with people out all day every day like it was normal times again. Waiting in line at grocery and big box retail stories. Waiting in lines on the road. No parking at stores like normal. AirBnb's booked up for the weeks I wanted to travel.

It kills me to hear people scream they need pandemic/economic paychecks, Obama phones, 99 weeks of unemployment, and other bailouts.. but they keeping up with the same lifestyle they always had like nothing has happened.

Also, the right time to buy a car or some other item is when you need it. Not when it's cheap and not avoiding it when it's more expensive. But when you need it.

If you make good money and plan on NOT reselling it like it's an investment, then the price being a bit more when you need it, isn't really a thing.

 

[miketpowell]

Wholesale prices have increased 10.8% in a single month. - That's absurd. Those wholesale prices trickle down to consumer level meaning higher prices for everything.

​

I mean it would be absurd if it was true. However, that is not what the linked article says.

"The producer price index rose 0.8% for the month and 10.8% over the past year."

 

[Magister]

It's hard to lower your luxury levels. People would rather have nothing to eat than being perceived as poor. That's why you still dont see the recession on the streets.

They just don't want to get rid of their luxury life. But they will have to soon, and it's going to get ugly.

The percentage of canceled house sales just went up and it's near Covid time.

Russians on the other hand already experienced a real crisis. 2008 crisis was nothing compared to that and you will soon see it.

As far as the Russian military and Ukraine war goes, they are doing okay.

 

[CCarter]

La Federale Minutos

The Fed meeting notes from the June 14-15 were released and absorbed.

Basically people are expected another 75 basis point increase OR MORE at the next meeting (Source: Wall Street ends up as investors absorb Fed minutes).

Next Fed meeting is July 26 & 27. You got 7 days.

I assume you guys know what's going to happen to buttcoin that week, right? There shouldn't be any doubt in anyone's mind what's going to happen. Hold your buttcheeks tight.

I personally think the Fed fucked up a long time ago. Back on January 26 I posted that these idiots should have been bringing up interest rates cause they were kicking the can down the road when I called them psychopaths.

These guys aren't even sociopaths, they are psychopaths...

The 2020 damage has been done and we still haven't started seeing the damage from 2021, and they are kicking the can down the road 2 months.

The reason I talk about buttcoin so much is because it symbolizes what's wrong with the masses - both from the "buttcoin maximus" crowd, cause they don't understand where the money is coming from to prop up the whales, but also the politicians, cause that's what the Fed is at this point.

These politicians are willing to do whatever helps them keep their job and is "polling" good. They'll say whatever and do whatever that benefits them short-term without thinking of long-term consequences.

Giving out free money "polls good". BUT maybe that's not a good financial or monetary decision - long term.

Why would people work when you are giving out free money?

They should have raised rates a long time ago. They should have never given out money during the pandemic to anyone, especially consumers AND especially businesses.

That created a ton of free money in the system that drove up demand for goods and services, that then created this massive supply chain problem. That also created and stroked a sense of entitlement you guys will be seeing for the next 2-3 generations.

There are stories of "small business" owners getting $20K PPP loans they don't have to pay back if certain conditions are met. Some of these "small business owners" were fucking strippers.

People took advantage of the system, the strippers is an extreme example, but there are "accountants" that may have done their family and friend's taxes, that took out loans and were flushed with money they didn't have to pay back.

Why do you think there is a supply chain problem? Cause people have too much money and are spending it. Where did they get the money from if there was a pandemic and people weren't "working"? It was free.

A lot of that "free" money was put into Crypto-crap, buttcoin, real estate, and just general tomfoolery. They weren't saving it for a rainy day cause "the government will bail them out". Well until the day the government doesn't... You just can't keep printing money.

First, we exposed over 1,000 ghost businesses in Markham that received Paycheck Protection Program loans intended for small businesses struggling during the pandemic. The ghost businesses had fake addresses and no licenses.

Still under investigation is Markham police Officer Kenneth Muldrow, who received a $20,000 loan for a lawn care service where he used the Markham police station as the address of his business.

(Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/new...-billions-of-dollars-in-fraudulent-ppp-loans/)​

The police are even stealing, WTF.

There are early estimates of $76 billion in fraudulent loans:

Here are just a few facts about the massive scale of PPP fraud:

- More than 15% of PPP loans had at least one indication of potential fraud. Around 1.8 million of the PPP's 11.8 million loans showed signs of fraud, according to an academic working paper cited by The New York Times.

- Researchers estimate that $76 billion in PPP loan money was taken illicitly. That’s almost 10% of the program’s nearly $800 billion budget.

- Fintech lenders had the highest rate of suspicious PPP loans. Financial lenders — or fintechs — made around 29% of all PPP loans but accounted for more than half of its suspicious loans to borrowers.

(Source: PPP Loan Fraud: The $100 Billion Scam That Ruined America's Economy)​

What do you expect to happen when you give billions to people that know they don't have to pay back the money? Massive increase in demand that will cause massive problems when a ton of the economy is locked-down and can't move to even services the demands.

They shouldn't have given out a fucking dime to anyone. "But they would have starved." No they wouldn't. Their rounds bellies could afford to miss a couple of meals anyway.

If you've ever been in a hurricane situation, where power and lights are out, FEMA actually comes and gives you 8 gallons of water and food.

You drive up to a FEMA "death camp", you DO NOT get out of your car.

They open your trunk for you, place the water and food in your trunk, and you drive off.

You don't show any paperwork, ID, or say anything to the FEMA death squad.

You literally drive up, they put food and water in the trunk of your car, and drive off. That's what happens in a real emergency.

That was what was happening during COVID too. They had "food tents" where you drive up to get food and water, no questions asked. The only rule is you can't get out your car, they put the food in your car.

Ain't nobody starving in America.

--

Crypto Decrypted

If you guys aren't careful you'll be caught short.

In a single day $100 million in ETH and $100 million in Bitcoin was liquidated. Meaning there was a margin call and forced sale of the assets by the loan provider due to the price dropping below a certain threshold (based on the negotiated margin terms).

Basically, it's like the bank giving you a loan for $500K for your home, but if the value of the home every drops below, say, 5% at any given time - so $475K, the bank can IMMEDIATELY sell your home to secure at least the $475K value. And you'll wake up on the curb not knowing why the neighbor's sprinklers are hitting you in the face all of a sudden.

So $200 million was liquidated in a single day - Thursday June 30th.

Now I know that's chump change to some of you crypto-trillionaires. Now what happens when one liquidation trigger someone else's margin call, and that triggers someone else's?

Remember 70% of crypto trading is on margin already. It's a downward death spiral. Add in "no free money", then add in increased interest rate for the "whales" to borrow money agains to get into cryptocrap...

And now you have to ask yourself what's going to happen after the next Federale meeting on July 26-27?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1284532584509251586

At a certain point, I mean, come one, it's just time to exit.

You guy should be able to see crystal clearly what's about to happen. There is no way you should have any doubt in your mind which direction this crypto-crap is going.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514348812948496385

You guys were really basing your financial future on operations that use twitter bots and spambots to promote the next shitcoin? You're already dead.

--

Barreling Towards $10 Gallon Gas

But Moscow can afford to reduce daily crude production by 5 million barrels without excessively damaging the Russian economy, JPMorgan analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note to clients.

For much of the rest of the world, however, the results could be disastrous.

A 3 million barrel cut to daily supplies would push benchmark London crude prices that are now around $111 to $190, while the worst-case scenario of 5 million could mean “stratospheric” $380 crude, the analysts wrote.

“The most obvious and likely risk with a price cap is that Russia might choose not to participate and instead retaliate by reducing exports,” the analysts wrote.

“It is likely that the government could retaliate by cutting output as a way to inflict pain on the West. The tightness of the global oil market is on Russia’s side.”

(Source: JPMorgan predicts $380 oil on worst-case Russian output cuts)​

--

Canaries

Cryptocurrency, OnlyFans, and Real Estate are canaries in a coal mine.

Wait a minute, OnlyFans? What does that have to do with anything. OnlyFans showcases where we are going as a society - entrepreneurial wise and morally. But sticking to the "entrepreneur" side of things. You now have everyday "consumers" turning into "producer", 99% of them are horrible at it, but it's a mindset shift.

The next generation coming up do not want to work 9-5 jobs. It's why businesses are having such hard times finding employees. The employees were let go during the pandemic and they had to find other means of supporting themselves. THAT is what should have happened - without the free money, the people would adapt and "get it done".

But forget that angle, there is a growing amount of younger adults that will never work 9-5 jobs, they know the game is rigged and are creating new opportunities.

Whether they succeed or not is on them.

What you have to understand is this is a massive mental shift happening. Most people on this forum are here cause of the same inherit reasoning to not work a 9-5, so you understand. But now with Instagram, TikTok, and Onlyfans, the ways of making money are more blurred and therefore harder to quantify.

What does that have to do with anything? Well - a huge part of the problem is the hopes of dreams of the next generation is placed within cryptocurrency. And obviously we know which direction that's going. But the bigger impact for the next several generations you'll start noticing most people are lazy and shitty and you can't get shit done cause if the entitlement.

--

La Résistance

In World News, The Social Justice Warriors really don't want people to eat meat. Men are men, and men eat meat, not vegetables or soy-pretend meat. So now the assault on meat starts in the Netherlands. Dutch farmers for weeks have been protesting a new law that sees some farms cut 95% of the cows they own to cut nitrogen emissions.

These fucking Vegans are a real problem. But now they are going way way WAY too far. Dutch Dairy Farmer Faces Having to Cull 95 Percent of His Cows

There are numerous talks about the protest for weeks but it's another example of the globalists's Social Justice Warrior propaganda starting to impact real world.

Source: Good for Dutch farmers for fighting back against a gov’t bowing to enviro-radicals

What Vegans and SJW need to understand is when you try to push an agenda that's against nature, nature will fight back.

What these meat substitutes do is "mimic" energy. They aren't energy. In fact what all fakers do is "mimic" the energy sources. Like "Impossible Burgers" they want to mimic meat because meat is natural energy. You don't see situations of meat "mimicking vegetables" for a reason.

And now the truth has started to emerge in scientific studies - just released:

Human cells take in less protein from a plant-based 'meat' than from chicken

Many people have now embraced the plant-based 'meat' movement. Plants high in protein, such as soybeans, are common ingredients, but it's been unclear how much of the nutrient makes it into human cells. Researchers now report that proteins in a model plant-based substitute were not as accessible to cells as those from meat. The team says this knowledge could eventually be used to develop more healthful products.

Source: Human cells take in less protein from a plant-based 'meat' than from chicken​

Well... I think any man that's ever lifted weights and made actual gains in the gym already knew this (please if you look like a pencil-neck geek don't reply).

Another example is the post-modern feminist movement. It trying to get "women to act like men". Where is the energy? In Men. Hence why the post-modern feminist movement is trying to emasculate generations of men instead of empowering them to be masculine, while at the same time telling women to be more masculine.

If masculinity was so problematic, why are the post-modern feminists trying to mimic masculinity by telling women to "go after it like a man"? You see the irony? The post-modern feminist movement has always been very odd - and if you question it, your automatically labeled misogynist, without need for further explanation. Okay good luck with that.

Read the ingredients in the "fake" food you eat, they contains nothing but "soy". WTF. If you're a man NEVER eat anything with the ingredient "soy" in it, just for the sake of your future children, Jebus.

There is a reason it's called "soy-boys". Soy is a phytoestrogens. "Phytoestrogens can mimic the effects of estrogen." Too much estrogen causes breast cancer. Hence why all the MEN (10% of breast cancer cases are men) that get breast cancer always have too much estrogen (or estrogen like impacts) within their bodies.

Soy will literally kill Men ("M" is capital). So if they get rid of the meat, which is masculine, they'll have a ton of limp-dick "boys" running around (which they can control easily - tell them to take experimental vaccine and they will without question). Meanwhile the women are like "where have all the men gone?" Well you've been feeding them soy... figure it out - Testosterone level of zero. Ya'll ninjas are dead.

If in the distant future you start eating bugs - at some point you'll have to ask yourself whether you are a man or a mouse.

Even if you aren't already dead, your limp-dick is if you keep this SJW soy/bugs agenda up.

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Sri-La-What-The-Hell

These guy are just morons. They decided to cut taxes, debase their currency, and therefore create this self-fulling prophecy. What's interesting is this is a completely liberal approach that's causes a collapse. https://www.usnews.com/news/best-co...-sri-lanka-descended-into-crisis-and-protests.

When you have zero understanding of fiscal policy and lead a country, you just can't keep kicking the can down the road. And now think about all the SJW and socialist agenda trying to be pushed through the USA. You can't just keep spending money, giving away free money, and creating social programs that will continue encouraging people not to work.

The system CANNOT SUSTAIN such stress forever.

And that's what's scary. I believe a lot of people KNOW the system cannot sustain that much stress, but they continue down this path. So at some level they are doing it on purpose.

I haven't been able to get a clear argument how this is not being done on purpose. Like - you're trying to collapse the system...

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$52 billion Semiconductor bill

And over a year later since this thread started finally Congress has started to act, with bipartisan cooperation. Obviously Nancy Pelosi's husband Paul Pelosi had to put in his call options so he can get his money before the bill gets to the floor - These Democrats really are thieves in the night.

In today’s world, the markets cannot be separated from politics. Case in point – the semiconductor subsidy bill currently before Congress. The bill, which holds the promise of some $52 billion worth of subsidies for the US semiconductor industry, was stalled in the Congressional processes for several months but last week got a boost from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In a move not sees as particularly coincidental, Pelosi’s husband just last month exercised a call option to purchase more than $5 million worth of shares in Nvidia, a major chip maker.

Forget the appearances for a moment, no matter how bad that looks. The semiconductor chip bill has bipartisan support, and while it’s path through the Senate is rocky, it’s expected to pass – and that will mean an infusion of cash into the US semiconductor industry. While the chip segment is hurting now, $52 billion will open a lot of opportunities, up and down the semiconductor supply chain, and investors should be on the lookout accordingly.

Source: Congress deliberates a $52 billion semiconductor bill — Here are 2 stocks that could benefit​

As soon as that call option was executed, all of a sudden the "stalling" stopped. WOW.

At least we'll be able to make stuff again.

Here we go:

The U.S. Senate on Tuesday voted to move ahead with a slimmed-down version of legislation to provide billions of dollars in subsidies and tax credits for the semiconductor industry, hoping to ease a shortage that has disrupted production in industries from automobiles to electronics and high-tech weapons.

The Senate backed by 64 to 34 a procedural measure setting the stage for potential votes to pass the legislation in the Senate and House of Representatives by the end of next week.

[..]

The final text was not released before the procedural vote, but Senate aides said the measure includes about $54 billion in subsidies for U.S. semiconductor companies, as well as a new, four-year 25% tax credit to encourage companies to build plants in the United States. The tax credit is estimated to be worth about $24 billion.

Source: U.S. Senate votes to move ahead on chip bill to compete with China​

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Maybe there is hope...

Not for buttcoin obviously.

 

[Jesse]

If in the distant future you start eating bugs - at some point you'll have to ask yourself whether you are a man or a mouse.

On this point in particular, it's perhaps worth noting that the United Kingdom is already starting to get programs off of the ground to move primary school children into the bug eating direction.

Edible insects and plant-based alternatives to meat will be discussed with children as part of new research.

The project, led by academics at Cardiff University and the University of the West of England (UWE Bristol), aims to find out children's attitudes to environmental issues and how this translates into views on the food they eat.

Focusing on learners of primary school age (5 to 11) and their teachers in Wales, the research will use surveys, workshops, interviews and focus groups to explore young people's understandings and experiences of alternative proteins. Teachers will also give their input on how these discussions should take place in the classroom.

As well as published research, the project aims to provide resources for schools to help them deliver lessons on the environmental impact of what people put on their plates.

From: https://phys.org/news/2022-05-edible-insects-plant-based-proteins-subject.html

I want to note that they have clarified and confirmed that this will include having bugs for children to eat.

 

[CCarter]

United Kingdom

I'm not even surprised. The UK was ground zero for political correctness (PC), after subjugating a ton of the world, all of a sudden "Oh Sorry". What the fuck happened to the UK's balls.

"Gunboat, diplomacy" - It's how shit gets done.

The PC movement has turned into the Social Justice Warrior (SJW) movement by being injected with post-modern feminist.

What happens when your kids, thinking sons, don't get enough protein as they develop? Limp-dicks. Easily controlled population.

The real reason SJWs want you to not eat meat is because real meat increases testosterone and makes men more "manly". It's easier to docile people that have no muscles versus guys benching 315 lbs.

It has nothing to do with saving the fucking planet.

The late Steve Irwin has a great quote about this:

Steve prefaced his comments by saying that he went through a stage where he thought it would be better for the environment to be a vegetarian, so he did a great deal of research.

"Let's say this represents one cow, which will keep me in food for, let's say, a month. Now that cow needs this much land and food. Well, you can imagine, that cow needs x by x amount of land, and you can grow trees in it. Around that cow, you can have goannas, kangaroos, wallabies. You can have every other single Australian animal in and around that cow," Steve told The Scientific American. "If I was a vegetarian, to feed me for that month, I need this much land, and nothing else can grow there. Herein lies our problem. If we level that much land to grow rice and whatever, then no other animal could live there except for some insect pest species. Which is very unfortunate."

Source: This Steve Irwin Comment Explains Why His Family Is Not Vegetarian​

Irwin's daughter Bindi eat meat daily.

In order to create these plant-based nonsense you have to carve out a LOT of land to grow them and therefore no other animals can live on that land, especially insects.

Obviously the SJW are completing ignore that logic.

I really believe it's a sinister plot to undermine future generations and get them better in line.

Are you a man or a mouse?

 

[UFO]

In order to create these plant-based nonsense you have to carve out a LOT of land to grow them and therefore no other animals can live on that land, especially insects.

This is partly true, spray enough pesticides and not much else lives. That opens up a whole other can of worms though. Roundup Maker to Pay $10 Billion to Settle Cancer Suits

Your typical granola munching activist vegan cult member isn't into the GMO, Roundup-soaked stuff, so that leads to organic farming. Farmland is incredibly bio-diverse. So guess what happens when it's time to harvest? To quote the great Ted Nugent:

“If you wanna be responsible for the most death possible, become a vegan. Because behind that tractor and that plough and that disc, unless you hide and deny it, are crows and seagulls following that tractor growing your tofu because the plough and the disc dismember and mutilate EVERYTHING in those gazillion acres — every squirrel, every ground-nesting gopher, every ground-nesting bird, every snake, every turtle, every animal in that field that’s turned into tofu is SLAUGHTERED by the gazillion”, Nugent says and continues:

“My son’s a vegan, my buddy Michael Lutz [of] Brownsville Station, my co-producer, he’s a vegan for health considerations, for digestive considerations. That’s perfectly legitimate. I’m not knocking veganism. But don’t think for a minute that there’s a reduction in animal deaths because you have a tofu salad. Just the opposite takes place. And denial is such a convenient lie. So all you vegans, just keep eating your vegan salad because I love when you dismember all those animals and the crows and the seagulls pick up on them as they’re writhing in horror and being tortured so you can have a nice ‘blood-free’ salad.”

Source

My Dad grew up on a farm and can confirm this, harvests can be pretty brutal. I've seen deer get caught up in combines, not a pretty sight. The cult members like to scream "meat is murder" when in reality "veganism is mass murder."

The cult will say "grow your own food in a garden so you don't kill shit." This argument also falls apart because A) What if you live in an apartment? B) The amount of space you need to grow your food, let alone enough for your family is immense. C) Most people are too lazy or lack the knowledge to grow their own food (not as easy as people think) D) You will still most likely have to kill pests so they don't eat your food.

I get that there are some closed hydroponic/aquaponic systems out there, but again you need some space and to still be able to have the motivation and know-how.

A few months back I saw a video with this lady named Lierre Keith (can't find the video but here's an interview where she tells the story). She's a former vegan and wrote a book called The Vegetarian Myth. She told a story about how she grew her own food to avoid killing animals but guess what happened? Slugs came and munched on her lettuce. She tried relocating the slugs at first, but how many hours a day can you devote to that? So, how do you get rid of slugs? You put a dish out with beer, they're attracted to the beer and drown themselves (hopefully they caught a buzz first). She was distraught over having to kill slugs.

Oh, and she also had to give up the vegan lifestyle because it was killing her. Vegans can be nutrient deficient, and some studies suggest that this can cause some psychological problems (we've all seen the mentally unhinged ones).

Damn, now I'm hungry. Steak and venison sausage anyone?

 

[CCarter]

In this special edition of "This is Good for Buttcoin":

Dutch Farmers Prepare To Fight Government Overreach By Gaining Financial Freedom With Bitcoin

As government entities continue to oppress farmers in the Netherlands, Bitcoin stands ready to help those in need.

[..]

What does this mean for bitcoin? According to a Dutch educator and entrepreneur, interest in bitcoin is growing and the most important single hook — what makes people’s eyes light up — is the idea that bitcoin is money out of the reach of the government.

[..]

De Ven said that the story of the Canadian truckers has played to large audiences here and is causing a level of anxiety that is causing farmers to realize they have got to secure their finances out of the reach of the government.

“I was surprised by the farmers that I’ve talked to that most of them have heard of it [bitcoin] are aware of it, are very much aware of the problems they are facing,” he said … “Farmers are financially savvy and understand the solution that bitcoin brings,” de Ven added.

De Ven says farmers are “weary of government control,” and have been “terrorized by government regulations.”

Farmers are also facing the introduction of CBDCs.

The farmers totally get that the government is the enemy and they have to act now to escape complete capitulation.

Dutch farmers have called on the world’s blue-collar workers to come together for a day of international demonstrations against radical climate policies on July 23, 2022.

Meanwhile in Amsterdam, bitcoin businesses are thriving and bitcoin is no longer a gimmick but a means of exchange, says de Ven.

Source: Bitcoin Magazine: Dutch Farmers Prepare To Fight Government Overreach By Gaining Financial Freedom With Bitcoin​

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I can assure you buttcoin is STILL a gimmick.

The mental gymnastics these buttcoin maximus go through to validate their point - WOW.

I mean they have to see how crazy they look when they combine one thing that has nothing to do with buttcoin into their 'reality'.

But "This is Good for Buttcoin" has no end.

The crazy part is I found this on Google News when looking up the latest from the protests. Jebus.